Just for old time’s sake, I’m going to quickly take apart Herald Sun hack Bolta’s most recent cry for help. It’s a blog entry entitled “Signs that warming scare is all hot air“. Easy shit.
Since most of today’s digitised sputum is typical quote-mining and astonishing inability to differentiate between what’s been peer reviewed and what’s been extemporaneously speculated (typical hack fair, basically), I’m just going to address each of Bolta’s Ten Seals of the Warmist Illuminati Conspiracy.
1st sign: The world isn’t warming
At least he begins by making it clear that his world is not the real one.
Anyway, yes, the world is warming. In science, we tend to use this thing called mathematics. To find trends in data, we use statistics. To find out if an average changes with the addition of new variables, we use a thing called a moving average. It’s a pretty rudimentary stuff, generally just involving a little data collection and arithmetic.
What Bolta is doing is picking a nice, hot year, and drawing a line to the most recent temperature. Apparently, in Bolta’s world, ENSO doesn’t exist and everything is linear. That’s because Bolta’s world doesn’t contain complicated things that you need to break out the calculator for.
Anyway, without boring you with statistics, here’s a lovely graphic that demonstrates beautifully why Bolta’s approach doesn’t work.
Now, there’s nothing wrong with not knowing how to do science; but there’s a lot wrong with pretending you do to push a political agenda.
2nd sign: The warming models are wrong
Seriously? Boring. Let’s unpack.
The weekend papers screamed alarm: “The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has surpassed 400 parts per million for the first time in human history.”
But wait. Lots more carbon dioxide, but no more warming? This isn’t what we were told to expect.
My FSM, this is how you know that the Herald Sun is a piece of shit paper. See above.
See, predictions the world is heating dangerously are based on mathematical models of how the climate is meant to work. Add our emissions to the equation, and scientists are meant to figure how much the world should warm.
Bolta doesn’t like maths very much.
But as Professor Judith Curry, chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology, told a US Congressional committee last month, those models guessed too high, and didn’t predict pauses in warming longer than 17 years.
Which models? There’s a lot of them. Let’s test this claim though. It makes sense, then, to check measurements against predictions made by some models, and then see if the predictions of any models match the real-world data we’re accumulating. That gets done all the time. Here’s a quote from one such study, from 2012:
“…the results strongly suggest that the more sensitive models perform better, and indeed the less sensitive models are not adequate in replicating vital aspects of today’s climate.”
Next! Oh shit, another paragraph from Bolt.
Ed Hawkins, of the University of Reading, found the global temperature since 2005 on the very lowest end of the widest range predicted by influential climate models.
…it was a bit more complicated than that. Nice try, though.
3rd sign: Warming disasters aren’t happening
Ignoring the usual Tim Flannery quote-mine (apparently Tim Flannery is Bolta’s favourite climate expert), let’s move on to the specifics.
In 2001, the IPCC predicted “milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms”.
Because science in 2001 in a burgeoning, complex field is still relevant today.
But the US National Snow and Ice Data Center this year tried to claim global warming had now increased snowstorms in the US.
The US isn’t the whole world. Warmer regions on the planet will get less, colder reasons will get more.
Same story with so many other scares. Al Gore was wrong – the critical glaciers of the Himalayas are not vanishing…
Nor are we getting more cyclones, bigger floods, worse diseases or greater famines, as some predicted.
4th sign: People are relaxing
And that matters how?
5th sign: The rest of the world is chilling, too
Delusion and apathy are causes for celebration?
6th sign: Even Labor hardly seems to care now
7th sign: A bit of warming seems good for us
Just no. Idiot.
But more warming also means more rain in most places,
And rain totally has nothing to do with flooding, hey.
8th sign: Warming seems worth the price of getting richer
…yes, this is progress.
9th sign: “Stopping” warming isn’t working
Emissions have dropped.
Australians pay a $9 billion-a-year carbon tax and billions more in subsidies for “green” technology.
We also pay for fossil fuel subsidies. Yes, the plan sucks, but the carbon tax is working.
If we keep paying these billions for the next seven years, what difference will we make to the world’s temperature by the end of the century?
Australia’s Professor Roger Jones, a warmist, says no more than 0.0038 degrees, and that’s even assuming the climate models are right.
Which models? And yeah, the tax needs to be fixed. We also need to tax the living shit out of what we export. But this isn’t the point. The point is one of the most stable economies in the world setting an example for the rest of the world.
10th sign: Sceptical scientists now get a hearing
Denier scientists always get airtime. Fox News, anyone? The Bolt Report?
In 2007, ABC staff protested when the ABC decided to finally show one documentary questioning the warming scare, The Great Global Warming Swindle.
The ABC compromised. The screening was given a hostile introduction and was followed with an even more hostile panel session.
Umm, well, it was a fine example of bare-faced bullshit artistry.
That’s how hard it was for sceptical scientists to get a hearing.
Boo-hoo. He’s right y’all. We should so listen to creationists and anti-vaxxers too.
That wall is now breaking. Dissent is being heard, with Professor Ian Plimer’s sceptical Heaven and Earth alone selling more than 40,000 copies here.
Anyone who has ever waved one at you might profit from reading this.
But, no, this great scare is unforgivable. It’s robbed us of cash and, worse, our reason.
Andrew, you’re so right. The alarmist campaign you and your friends are running is unforgivable. It has robbed us of our cash, and it actively wages war on our reason.
Go fuck yourself.